Citations: 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005

 

 
Publications

>> In Hungarian

	In English
>>	Hidden economy in Hungary 1992-1999, Wargo Research Papers, 2002/2, p. 16. (Co-author: Endre Sik), download (PDF, 154 kbyte)
>>	"The State, International Agencies, and Property Transformation in Postcommunist Hungary", American Journal of Sociology, Volume 108, Number 1 (July 2002): 129-167 (Co-authors: Eric Hanley, Larry King), download (PDF, 412 kbyte)
>>	Liquidity Constraints and Consumner Impatiance,  NBH Working Papers, 2001/2, National Bank of Hungary, Budapest (Co-author: Zsófia Árvai), download (PDF, 369 kbyte)  other research documents & data ABSTRACT: In our paper we summarize the recent researches on Hungarian household savings based both on macro indicators and survey data and give a brief description of the evolution of Hungarian aggregate indicators for financial wealth, assets and liabilities. We analyze data obtained from a special survey conducted in September 2000. The survey questions were supplied by the authors and were constructed to gain insight into prevailing liquidity constraints, consumer impatience, households’ attitude towards indebtedness, and to separate „financially relevant” households, i.e. households with financial assets and/or liabilities, because these are the groups that are most relevant for economic policymakers. The paper also contains estimations of the propensity to borrow. Based on the survey questions, special indicators, such as income tension, consumer impatience are constructed and used – among others – as explanatory variables in the regressions. The indebtedness of Hungarian households as a ratio to disposable income and GDP was declining until the end of the 1990s, and the current 7% debt/disposable income ratio is very low compared to the 50-150% ratio typical of developed countries. Based on the favorable prospects of the Hungarian economy, households have positive future income expectations, which – along with the easing of liquidity constraints and consumer impatience – projects the gradual rise of household indebtedness. The analysis of a hypothetical windfall gain of 1 million forint (approx. 3760 euros) indicates that responding households would spend 35% of it on home buying, improving or upgrading purposes, and 42% would be used for saving, debt repayment and investment into business. This suggests that Hungarian households are rather unsatisfied with their living conditions and improving them has top priority. Besides that the share of households intending to save or invest the unexpected gain is also rather high. We state that the liquidity constraint is an important element of the propensity to borrow of Hungarian households. Our results suggest that Hungarian households are moving from an equilibrium characterized by low indebtedness to one that corresponds more to what we find in developed countries, that is to an equilibrium with higher financial liability ratios. Based on similar recent economic history of transition countries, this conclusion is likely to be true for other EU accession countries as well.
>>	Unofficial Economic Activities and Fiscal Discipline in Hungary. As Mirrorred in Consecutive Enterprise Surveys on Tax Behaviour,  Discussion Papers - New Series, IE HAS, MT-DP. 2001/11, Institute of Economics Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest (Co-author: András Semjén), download (PDF, 412 kbyte)  other research documents & data
>>	Can we believe in the results of the researches based on business surveys? (Co-author: Vincze, János), 2000, mimeo, download (RTF, 117 kbyte) ABSTRACT: The paper examines the accuracy and validity of questionnaire based enterprise surveys on the concrete example of a survey carried out by the National Bank of Hungary in 1998. The aim of the survey was to investigate the price setting behavior by Hungarian companies. It asks whether the accuracy of managerial responses depends on firm size or firm performance. It contains an empirical test of the common (and plausible) hypothesis that managers of firms in a relatively "good shape" tend to have a higher propensity to respond. Results indicate that a self-selection bias of this sort did not exist for the survey in question.
>>	Ownership Structure, Business Links and Performance of Firms in a Transforming Economy. The Case of Hungary, Discussion Papers - New Series, MT-DP. 1999/3, Institute of Economics Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest, download (PDF, 239 kbyte) ABSTRACT: This study concentrates on the analysis of the characteristics of the ownership and business links existing between the enterprises; the effects of business links and financial discipline on the effectiveness and growth capability of enterprises, as well as the changes which have taken place since 1992 in the performance of Hungarian enterprises. The author regard financial discipline (the breach of payment obligations toward the partners or in the delayed payment of taxes) a very important indicator in that how safe the business links of a company can be considered. The results show that the occurrence of liquidity problems in itself has a significant effect on the breach of financial discipline. The absence of firm's growth increases the chance for breach of financial discipline and the foreign-owned companies are better protected against the looser payment discipline of the partners. The results also confirm the better growth capability of foreign companies. If companies which are related by ownership links also establish business links, then the closer business links make better growth dynamics probable. Companies, which are each others' suppliers within a company group usually, achieve a faster growth than the rest of the companies. The analysis of tax returns shows that we are not talking simply of the temporary good influence of the transition from state-ownership to private ownership but we can emphasize a certain type of private ownership, that is, foreign ownership, which significantly improves the performance of the companies. According to the results, the contributions to the value added do not show a positive effect of privatization. The better performance of privatized (between 1993-1996) companies measured by the value added to employment in 1996 is not the result of privatization, but other technological, organizational influences or business conditions, which were in effect even before privatization.
>>	Tax behavior and financial discipline of Hungarian enterprises, In: Csaba, L. (ed.): The Hungarian SME Sector Development in Comparative Perspective, CIPE / Kopint-Datorg, Budapest, 1998, pp. 103-134., (co-author: András Semjén), download (PDF, 162 kbyte) ABSTRACT: Consecutive enterprise surveys and tax return data are used in this study to analyze effective tax rates and some elements of tax behavior (tax compliance, tax avoidance and evasion), contractual and financial discipline within different enterprise groups. Based on survey data and the randomized response technique, an estimation is given for the percentage share of tax evading enterprises within the Hungarian economy. The authors also present some evidence supporting a circular relationship between macroeconomic environment or business climate and financial discipline within the economy. Their findings suggest that there happened a rather significant improvement in financial discipline during the 1994-98 period. A shrinkage in the importance of hidden economy also seems likely for the same period.
>>	Market links and growth capability of enterprises in a transforming economy: the case of Hungary, In: Csaba, L. (ed.): The Hungarian SME Sector Development in Comparative Perspective, CIPE / Kopint-Datorg, Budapest, 1998, pp. 29-59., download (PDF, 262 kbyte) ABSTRACT: In this study the author analyses the business relationship between Hungarian companies on the basis of an empirical investigation during which approximately 300 enterprises were questioned. The companies questioned represent a variety of Hungarian manufacturing, building and trading companies with more than 20 employees, according to their size and sector. The analysis deals with the enterprises' condition and market range, their relationship with their suppliers and buyers, their competitors, and the security of their business relationships. The author examines the influence of these factors on the growth capacity of the companies and shows that Hungarian enterprises belong to several separate groups. According to the results of the applied regression model the growth capacities of the companies are significantly influenced by their connections with multinational companies, their markets and the type of majority ownership.
>>	"Inter-enterprise ownership links in Hungary", Acta Oeconomica, 1997-98, Vol. 49 (3-4), pp. 365-396., download (PDF, 134 kbyte) ABSTRACT: In this study the author examines the appearance and characteristics of cross-ownership links in Hungary on the basis of the company tax returns and the data of surveys which included various company groups. The results obtained make it possible to make some empirically established statements concerning the inter-enterprise ownership links and the characteristics of the given enterprises and to compare these with the results of other examinations. On the basis of the results the author criticizes the concept of recombinant property with regard to the transforming Hungarian economy and questions the relevancy of the theory of post-communist managerialism regarding diffuse and impersonal property.
>>	"The importance of the hidden economy in Hungary in 1995-96. An estimation on the basis of the empirical analysis of household expenses.", Acta Oeconomica, 1997-98, Vol. 49 (1-2), pp. 105-134., download (PDF, 189 kbyte) ABSTRACT: In Hungary in the middle of the nineties the extent of the hidden economy as compared to the officially reported GDP is not negligible. During the first part of the economic transition, in the midst of the recession - when the living standards of a significant part of the households decreased or were at risk - an important characteristic of the behaviour of a significant part of the households was that they obtained some of the necessary goods in unregistered forms. This fact, however, does not mean that all household take advantage of this possibility in an equal proportion. On the contrary, from the results of this paper it could be seen that this type of behaviour is only characteristic of a small proportion which decreases parallel to the increasing ratio of unregistered expenses. This means that the proportion of households which depend significantly on the advantages provided by the hidden economy is very limited. The paper shows that the income and financial condition of a household or the perception of these, as well as the size and infrastructure of the settlement where the household lives can only partly explain the affinity of the household towards unregistered expenses.

                   >> top

>> top